Post by Hawks GM (Connor) on Feb 7, 2023 14:20:57 GMT -5
Conference Champion Contenders
Clinched Top 6: Suns, Grizzlies, Kings, Bucks, Bulls
Pretty comfortably the top five teams in scoring this year, this group contains the only teams with fewer than five losses on the season and the only teams with a chance at the top 2 seeds in the East / top 3 seeds in the West. With each of them also top 6 in the power rankings, there is no reason for any of these teams to need a significant move before the deadline. All five are pretty closely ranked, though, and each could use minor upgrades at the back end of their rosters to put them ahead of the others.
Buyers: One Move Away
Clinched Top 6: 76ers
Clinched Top 10: Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Warriors
Likely Play-In: Heat, Hawks
This next group should be the most active buyers over the next 10 days. Each team is top 15 in scoring & top 13 in the power rankings and could very easily jump into the top five with a major move at the deadline. The Cavaliers, Warriors, & Hawks are in the best position in this tier to make a run at the teams at the top, while the 76ers, Heat, & Timberwolves are better described as teams they may need a pair of moves to make that leap. Regardless, all six of these teams are well positioned to be a potential sneaky contender with a few changes.
Buyers or Sellers?
Clinched Top 6: Pacers
Clinched Top 10: Hornets, Rockets
Likely Play-In: Jazz, Thunder, Mavericks
A mixed bag of middling playoff teams here, with no clear optimal strategy for their deadline moves. The Pacers, Rockets, & Mavericks should be labeled as overachievers this season, not because they have underwhelming rosters but rather that they are each so young. Each of the three could make some moves to consolidate youth for a championship push now, but may be better positioned to sell off older veterans and continue what have been impressive rebuilds. Potential names to consider watching...
Pacers: LeBron James, Bradley Beal, Jakob Poeltl
Rockets: Jamal Murray, Gary Trent, Kyle Kuzma
Mavericks: Collin Sexton, Jonathan Issac (& Kevin Durant?)
The Hornets, Jazz, & Thunder will all (at worst) make the play-in, but none of them truly have a path to making a deep postseason run without multiple major moves. That isn't to say they should be blowing up their rosters, but rather consider trading the many expiring contracts they each have to better position themselves for next season. The injuries and inconsistent rotation minutes for many of their depth pieces make it difficult to project them as solid contenders this season. Expiring contracts potentially available...
Hornets: Evan Fournier, Brook Lopez, Montrezl Harrell
Jazz: Myles Turner, Kelly Olynyk, Malik Beasley
Thunder: Terry Rozier, Ivica Zubac
Sellers: Blow It Up
Play-In #9 or #10: Trail Blazers, Pistons, Raptors, Magic
Likely Eliminated: Pelicans, Nets
At least half of these teams will make the play-in, but none of them have enough young talent to suggest their team can make a massive leap next season as currently constructed. They'd each be better off shopping stars and selling off other aging veterans to try and increase their lottery odds. Each of the six have all star talents, but many of those players are the reason these teams can't field enough depth to put out a truly competitive roster. But with a short retool, these teams still have the value on their rosters to create a contender within the next year or two. Each team could potentially benefit to shop the following...
Trail Blazers: Jimmy Butler, Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon
Pistons: CJ McCollum, John Collins, Dillon Brooks
Raptors: James Harden, Zach LaVine, Bojan Bogdanovic
Magic: Pascal Siakam, Russell Westbrook
Pelicans: Julius Randle, Clint Capela
Nets: Lonzo Ball, Harrison Barnes, Tim Hardaway
Eliminated: What's Left to Sell?
Eliminated: Celtics, Nuggets, Spurs, Lakers, Wizards, Knicks, Clippers
Last group of teams are mainly teams that were expected to be here at the beginning of the year, with most of their wins only coming against each other. They all should be sellers, but most of them have already been selling all season. So... what's left to sell?
Celtics: They should be focused on creating as much space as they can to resign Booker this offseason and build around him, Trae Young, & Anthony Davis. Outside of those three, nothing should be untouchable and guys like Beverley, Burks, Brissett, & Clarke should be hot names over the next 10 days.
Nuggets: Outside of Jokic & Dort, this roster could use a complete makeover. If they can find a team with the space to take them, Chris Paul & Mikal Bridges would help free up space this offseason -- Oladipo, Mitchell, & Toppin might be their most movable assets at the deadline though.
Spurs: A lot of big contracts were handed out this offseason by the Spurs (again), and it didn't pan out (again). Moving Wiggins & Smart would be the best way for the Spurs to buyout the rest of their overpaid FA signings.
Lakers: Most of their pieces have already moved, but Harris & Schroder should be the final players to sell as the rest of the roster looks ready to head into the offseason.
Wizards: Not a lot was left for the new owner to work with, but if the plan isn't to build around him then shopping Lillard is probably the priority for this team. Outside of that, Seth Curry is probably the only decent piece this team should want to move before the deadline.
Knicks: There are only about 3 players on this roster with any value to contenders and Ball / Garland should be long term pieces for NY to build around. Brandon Ingram is probably a player they should consider shopping, as his contract likely does not match up with what this team plans to do short term.
Clippers: Another LA team with very little left to sell, there are only a few expiring contracts that they could shop over the next 10 days -- otherwise, it's a roster full of young players that will likely survive into the offseason.
Clinched Top 6: Suns, Grizzlies, Kings, Bucks, Bulls
Pretty comfortably the top five teams in scoring this year, this group contains the only teams with fewer than five losses on the season and the only teams with a chance at the top 2 seeds in the East / top 3 seeds in the West. With each of them also top 6 in the power rankings, there is no reason for any of these teams to need a significant move before the deadline. All five are pretty closely ranked, though, and each could use minor upgrades at the back end of their rosters to put them ahead of the others.
Buyers: One Move Away
Clinched Top 6: 76ers
Clinched Top 10: Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Warriors
Likely Play-In: Heat, Hawks
This next group should be the most active buyers over the next 10 days. Each team is top 15 in scoring & top 13 in the power rankings and could very easily jump into the top five with a major move at the deadline. The Cavaliers, Warriors, & Hawks are in the best position in this tier to make a run at the teams at the top, while the 76ers, Heat, & Timberwolves are better described as teams they may need a pair of moves to make that leap. Regardless, all six of these teams are well positioned to be a potential sneaky contender with a few changes.
Buyers or Sellers?
Clinched Top 6: Pacers
Clinched Top 10: Hornets, Rockets
Likely Play-In: Jazz, Thunder, Mavericks
A mixed bag of middling playoff teams here, with no clear optimal strategy for their deadline moves. The Pacers, Rockets, & Mavericks should be labeled as overachievers this season, not because they have underwhelming rosters but rather that they are each so young. Each of the three could make some moves to consolidate youth for a championship push now, but may be better positioned to sell off older veterans and continue what have been impressive rebuilds. Potential names to consider watching...
Pacers: LeBron James, Bradley Beal, Jakob Poeltl
Rockets: Jamal Murray, Gary Trent, Kyle Kuzma
Mavericks: Collin Sexton, Jonathan Issac (& Kevin Durant?)
The Hornets, Jazz, & Thunder will all (at worst) make the play-in, but none of them truly have a path to making a deep postseason run without multiple major moves. That isn't to say they should be blowing up their rosters, but rather consider trading the many expiring contracts they each have to better position themselves for next season. The injuries and inconsistent rotation minutes for many of their depth pieces make it difficult to project them as solid contenders this season. Expiring contracts potentially available...
Hornets: Evan Fournier, Brook Lopez, Montrezl Harrell
Jazz: Myles Turner, Kelly Olynyk, Malik Beasley
Thunder: Terry Rozier, Ivica Zubac
Sellers: Blow It Up
Play-In #9 or #10: Trail Blazers, Pistons, Raptors, Magic
Likely Eliminated: Pelicans, Nets
At least half of these teams will make the play-in, but none of them have enough young talent to suggest their team can make a massive leap next season as currently constructed. They'd each be better off shopping stars and selling off other aging veterans to try and increase their lottery odds. Each of the six have all star talents, but many of those players are the reason these teams can't field enough depth to put out a truly competitive roster. But with a short retool, these teams still have the value on their rosters to create a contender within the next year or two. Each team could potentially benefit to shop the following...
Trail Blazers: Jimmy Butler, Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon
Pistons: CJ McCollum, John Collins, Dillon Brooks
Raptors: James Harden, Zach LaVine, Bojan Bogdanovic
Magic: Pascal Siakam, Russell Westbrook
Pelicans: Julius Randle, Clint Capela
Nets: Lonzo Ball, Harrison Barnes, Tim Hardaway
Eliminated: What's Left to Sell?
Eliminated: Celtics, Nuggets, Spurs, Lakers, Wizards, Knicks, Clippers
Last group of teams are mainly teams that were expected to be here at the beginning of the year, with most of their wins only coming against each other. They all should be sellers, but most of them have already been selling all season. So... what's left to sell?
Celtics: They should be focused on creating as much space as they can to resign Booker this offseason and build around him, Trae Young, & Anthony Davis. Outside of those three, nothing should be untouchable and guys like Beverley, Burks, Brissett, & Clarke should be hot names over the next 10 days.
Nuggets: Outside of Jokic & Dort, this roster could use a complete makeover. If they can find a team with the space to take them, Chris Paul & Mikal Bridges would help free up space this offseason -- Oladipo, Mitchell, & Toppin might be their most movable assets at the deadline though.
Spurs: A lot of big contracts were handed out this offseason by the Spurs (again), and it didn't pan out (again). Moving Wiggins & Smart would be the best way for the Spurs to buyout the rest of their overpaid FA signings.
Lakers: Most of their pieces have already moved, but Harris & Schroder should be the final players to sell as the rest of the roster looks ready to head into the offseason.
Wizards: Not a lot was left for the new owner to work with, but if the plan isn't to build around him then shopping Lillard is probably the priority for this team. Outside of that, Seth Curry is probably the only decent piece this team should want to move before the deadline.
Knicks: There are only about 3 players on this roster with any value to contenders and Ball / Garland should be long term pieces for NY to build around. Brandon Ingram is probably a player they should consider shopping, as his contract likely does not match up with what this team plans to do short term.
Clippers: Another LA team with very little left to sell, there are only a few expiring contracts that they could shop over the next 10 days -- otherwise, it's a roster full of young players that will likely survive into the offseason.